The overall development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2011

Since the unilateral rise in the market in 2009, the prices of non-ferrous metals at home and abroad have shown an upward trend in 2010. This aspect stems from the abundant liquidity in the global market, the recovery of the world economy, and the strong price of non-ferrous metals. On the other hand, it is also subject to domestic macro-control and tightening monetary policy, as well as overcapacity and environmental pressures in the non-ferrous metals industry. The influence of a series of factors. For 2011 hot spots such as non-ferrous metal price operation and industry development trend, some speculations on the non-ferrous metals industry in the new year have been released recently.

In terms of the research and development of the overall development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2011, the restructuring structure will be the main tone of the non-ferrous industry. This is not only the overall planning and layout of the country's economic restructuring, but also the current overcapacity in the domestic non-ferrous industry, low overall technical level, serious environmental pollution, low industrial concentration and the pressure on the non-ferrous metal industry to face foreign trade frictions such as anti-dumping. Various reasons. Therefore, to adjust the industrial structure, the domestic non-ferrous metals industry in the new year should do the following work: First, eliminate backward production capacity, such as the use of large-scale pre-bake cell technology above 300kA in the complete elimination or renovation of the aluminum smelting line; Second, the industrial layout should be more rational, achieve regional transfer in the development of non-ferrous metal resources and smelting capacity, and move closer to the integration direction in the mining and smelting process; the third is to improve the non-ferrous metal processing varieties and build an increasingly reasonable product structure.

In view of the increasingly prominent bottlenecks in the development of mineral resources in recent years, it is predicted that the shortage of mineral resources and low grades in 2011 will not be improved, and will even be further aggravated, especially copper concentrates will be more tense, which will make The problem of self-sufficiency rate of non-ferrous mineral products in China is more prominent.

In view of the trend of non-ferrous metal prices, it is believed that the price of non-ferrous metals will continue to be high in 2011 due to the abundant liquidity brought by the Fed's quantitative easing policy and the overlapping effect of China's tightening monetary policy. Due to the shortage of global supply, strong demand in emerging markets, and the impact of investment demand represented by commodity physical ETFs, the price trend of basic metals will be divided. In 2011, the performance of copper prices will win, and the long-term upward trend of gold prices is difficult to change.

Since the financial crisis, lead prices have fluctuated drastically. In 2010, lead prices fluctuated widely, and it was difficult to grasp the rise and fall. Many people in the industry hope to launch lead futures as soon as possible, and to avoid price fluctuation risks through futures tools. Lead futures are expected to be listed in 2011.

Whether it is for the overall non-ferrous metals industry or for individual non-ferrous companies, 2011 is facing enormous challenges. According to the analysis, the increasing trend of China's foreign trade friction in the new year will further affect non-ferrous metal enterprises. In this regard, the adjustment of product structure is the fundamental way for non-ferrous enterprises to respond to anti-dumping investigations, and accelerate the realization of foreign trade growth mode from extensive to quality, efficiency and structure. Optimized intensive growth mode shift. At the same time, the environmental protection measures that the country may introduce in the new year will form a “green barrier” for the development of non-ferrous industries. For the pollution problem of related varieties of non-ferrous production enterprises, the state will be bound by policies or taxes. In addition, the environmental protection permit system for lead-acid batteries, the “Renewable Lead Admission Guidelines” and the “Rare Earth Industrial Pollutant Emission Standards” are also being studied and formulated, which will have a major impact on the industry's green production.

It is predicted that the threshold for entry into the non-ferrous metals industry in the new year will increase. In order to limit the increasingly overcapacity and environmental protection environment of the regenerative metal industry, the Chinese government has begun to develop the conditions for access to recycled metals. With the implementation of some previous plans and regulations, it may bring about no small changes in the development of the industry.

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